February 4, 2025: They don’t know how absurd that sounds.
Thailand and Myanmar are equally shamed in the “cut-the-power-to-call-centres” saga wreaking havoc at domestic, bilateral and border levels. But let’s forget about Myanmar at least for a while. Let’s temporarily ignore how, in the first place, Thailand and Myanmar came to endorse a business deal that must have involved both governments’ scrutiny because it concerned across-the-border electricity distribution. Let’s not ask why Myanmar could not crack down on illegal operations on its soil while it could earlier approve such an electricity transfer across the frontier.
Let’s focus on the egoistic political showdown between the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties.
Let’s ask why Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul were unable to settle the who-should-order-what question inside their Cabinet room and have had to question each other through the media.
Let’s speculate why the apparent tension is rising after the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections over the weekend in which Bhumjaithai looked more as a thorn in Pheu Thai’s side.
Let’s dissect the advantages and disadvantages of the biggest coalition party untraditionally giving the Interior Ministry to a big “partner” although doing so could negatively affect key and urgent operations because the ego could always get in the way.
Abstention phenomenon
February 3, 2025: People not going to the polling booths is one thing, but people going there to declare they are not choosing anyone is absolutely another.
The phenomenal number of “No, I’m not casting my vote for any candidate” ballots in the Provincial Administrative Organisation elections over the weekend may be considered a declining state of Thai democracy. But that assumption gives way too much credit to the politicians. It could be the other way round. The Thai democracy may be at its best ever.
All political parties will need to take a long, hard look at themselves. There were times when voters gritted their teeth and took their picks because they thought they did not have a choice. Saturday was disgruntled voters taking matters into their own hands and telling political parties “Enough is enough. I don’t like what you are having so you are not going to get my vote.”
In Nakhon Ratchasima, there were almost 111,000 abstention ballots cast out of a turn-out of some 1,155,000 voters. Chiang Mai had more than 57,600 “no” votes out of some 877,600 ballots counted. In Chiang Rai, out of 605,780 people who voted, more than 43,400 did not want anybody. The number in Songkhla was over 86,800. Samut Prakarn, which is supposed to have an overwhelming number of believers in democracy, registered more than 42,100 “I don’t want any of your choices” votes.
The trend went like this all over the country.
There have been talks about Thaksin Shinawatra losing his magic, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit not meeting high expectations, and conservative parties trying to hang in there somewhere and re-emerging with a bang somewhere else. What is equally worthy of analysis, though, is why so many voters rejected all candidates presented to them.
It’s not just happening in Thailand, mind you. People who did not go to vote in the last presidential election in America numbered more than popular votes won by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Of course, people have their reasons for not going to the polls, and the absentees could have taken their picks had they been able to vote, but the American number was staggering all the same.
Popularity survey adds to big parties' PAO woes
February 2, 2025: The People’s Party’s Provincial Administrative Organisation election disappointment is understandable, but what makes it more intriguing is a recent popularity survey carried out just before the weekend.
The party still leads in the North Bangkok University poll conducted between January 27 and 31, and the Pheu Thai Party still comes second, but neither camp can be pleased with the findings.
The Bhumjaithai Party, which did remarkably well in the PAO elections on Saturday, has a cause to celebrate although it comes third in the survey.
The North Bangkok Poll results go like this: Out of 1,500 Thais questioned, 20.3 % support the People’s Party whereas 16.4 % back Pheu Thai. Bhumjaithai gets 14.9%. United Thai Nation, which looked more of a threat to the People’s Party and Pheu Thai in an earlier popularity poll, only comes fourth, winning 7.1 % support, on par with the Democrats.
As we can see, in this poll, Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai are not that far apart. Bhumjaithai is also within a striking distance of the champion of the last general election.
Absolutely jaw-dropping in the North Bangkok survey, though, is the “Not anymore” category. After all the backstabbing and ideological about-turn perceptions, one would expect Pheu Thai or any of the conservative parties to lead the table, but the findings are totally surprising. The shocks this time are across the board.
Some 54 % of people who used to support the People’s Party have changed their mind, topping this survey category. About 30 % of those who used to like Pheu Thai have stopped supporting it. Bhumjaithai’s admirers-turned-detractors are also numerous, or constituting 45 % of its support base, which makes its PAO achievements puzzling. United Thai Nation must be sweating, too, having seen almost 43 % of its fan base saying bye-bye.
Some findings explain what happened at PAO elections on Saturday, but others don’t.
Bt5 million bond is unnecessary
February 1, 2025: The minute the foreign minister entered the courtroom as a co-witness, Thaksin Shinawatra stopped being a flight risk.
If Thaksin did not return, his daughter’s government would collapse. It’s as simple as that. The bond of Bt5 million demanded by the Criminal Court which gave him the green light to travel to Malaysia was virtually unnecessary.
The presence of Maris Sangiampongsa, the foreign minister, was a bigger guarantee than anything, although it has become a subject of mockery and contempt. Not only would he have to resign if Thaksin decided to go into exile again, the whole government would be too shamed to continue.
But coming to really think about it, maybe Maris is also unnecessary. Considering that the prime minister is his daughter, whom he is trying to help in every way he can as a good daddy, that scenario (another exile, government demise, Pheu Thai’s election wipeout) will never happen. The co-witness thing was actually uncalled for.
Thaksin will return, or the daughter will stop talking to her father forever.
Daily updates of local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim
